Notes on Peter Turchin's Theories · Premise: [[Politics|Political]] disintegration is a predictable, cyclical process we can model using [[History]] and data (a field called Cliodynamics). · Two Main Causes of Crisis: · Elite Overproduction: Too many powerful people fighting for too few spoils, leading to internal conflict. · The "Wealth Pump": Systemic inequality that funnels wealth upward, depressing the living standards of the masses. · Modern Connection: The U.S. is a textbook case, with decades of: · Stagnant wages and a declining standard of living. · Soaring economic inequality. · Extreme political polarization and turmoil. · His Method: Uses large-[[Scale]] historical databases (like the Seshat Databank) to identify these patterns across different eras and [[Society|societies]]. · Ultimate Goal: To learn from these patterns to build more resilient societies and navigate periods of instability. `Concepts:` `Knowledge Base:`