**Cliodynamics** is an interdisciplinary research field that applies **quantitative methods, mathematical modelling, and large historical datasets** to the study of long-term social, political, and economic dynamics. The term derives from _Clio_, the Muse of history, and _dynamics_, indicating a focus on change over time. The field aims to identify **recurring patterns, cycles, and structural forces** in human societies, particularly those relating to: - political stability and collapse - population growth and decline - inequality and elite competition - state capacity and governance - collective violence and social unrest Cliodynamics treats history not solely as narrative or interpretation, but as a **data-rich system** that can be analysed in ways analogous to ecology or epidemiology. It does not attempt to predict specific events, but rather to model **probabilistic tendencies** and structural pressures that make certain outcomes more or less likely. The field is most closely associated with the work of **Peter Turchin**, who has used historical and archaeological data to model phenomena such as secular cycles (long periods of growth followed by instability), elite overproduction, and state breakdown. Research often draws on sources ranging from census records and economic data to chronicles, inscriptions, and archaeological evidence. Cliodynamics is controversial. Critics argue that: - historical data are incomplete and context-dependent - quantitative abstraction risks oversimplifying human agency and culture - predictive claims may be misinterpreted or overextended Supporters counter that traditional historical methods alone struggle to explain **large-scale, recurring patterns**, and that cliodynamics complements rather than replaces qualitative history. In essence, cliodynamics asks whether history exhibits **systemic regularities** driven by material and institutional constraints, rather than being solely the product of contingent events or individual decisions. If you wish, I can: - Reframe this as an **atomic Obsidian note** - Compare cliodynamics with **historical materialism or systems theory** - Summarise key cliodynamic concepts (e.g. elite overproduction, secular cycles) Just indicate how you would like to proceed.